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21st July, 2017

EU Single Market

From a report by Michael Burrage (Civitas), entitled

" It's Quite OK to Walk Away "

"A review of the UK’s Brexit options with the help of seven international databases"


This report covers detailed research of the trading relationship between the UK and the EU regarding the EEC (1973 to 1992) and the EU Single Market (1993 to 2015) - the following have been highlightedfrom the report.


  • No UK government  UK has carried out any systematic analysis  of the costs and benefits of being in the EEC or EU over the past 43 years.  This "oversight" was shared by the EU, who only began to assess the impact of the Single Market 22 years after it began (in 2014)
  • The only authoritative analysis that has been carried out over the past 43 years was a Treasury Report which was quickly produced (2015) just prior to the EU Referendum vote in the UK. That report was based upon a Treasury economic model in the form of equations and coefficients, to which were added assumptions, estimates and predictions of the effects of the UK's membership of the EEC (EU)
  • The analysis by Michael Burrage was based upon the data from seven International databases: "The OECD, the World Bank, the IMF (DOTS), UNCTAD, and UN Comtrade, the WTO (RTAIS), and the ITC. Real data, which is more trustworthy than a "Model" produced by the treasury.
  • Main thrust of the analysis is the comparison between the different current trading relationships that the EU has with other countries, through  differing trade agreements: Single Market (UK) and EU Single Market founding members; Bilateral Agreements (Switzerland and Turkey), EEA (Norway and Iceland) and the 111 countries that the UK already trades with, under WTO rules.
  • It is also noted that the various business groups in the UK who support the Remain camp, together with the SNP, and others each seem to base all of their arguments upon the conclusions of the Treasury "Model" which this analysis shows to be, at best untrustworthy.
  • The World Bank measure of GDP per person employed in 2014 shows the UK in exactly the same lowly position relative to other EU members, as it was in 1993 (at the start of the Single Market)
  • The rate at which UK goods exports to the 11 fellow founding members of the Single Market have grown over the years 1993-2015, compares unfaourably with the mean growth rate of the goods exports of Canada, Japan, Singapore and the US and 10 other non-member countries trading with the same 11 founding members under WTO rules, and It also compares unfavourably with UK goods exports to the 111 countries with which it trades under WTO rules.
  • The report also concludes that the Single Market in Services "is declining rather than growing"
  • One of the most worrying aspect of the report is that unemployment for the 15 - 24 years old in the EU (11) Single Market founding members was greater (approximately twice) than in the OECD (8) - Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand and the United States - for the entire period of the Single Market (up to 2014).
  • The final conclusion: The disadvantages of membership of the Single Market, and the benefits for many non-members are both easy to see - compared to the other way around.


The above report also points out the the Treasury Model estimated 115 % boost to trade in goods - the veracity of the claim was tested using the seven available economic databases cited above - and have shown to not be the case, in fact the benefits of being in the Single Market for the UK were found to be largely imaginary.


The Treasury Report was also subject to analysis by the Cass Business School


Measurement without Theory:
On the extraordinary abuse of economic models in the EU
Referendum debate
Grossly exaggerated impact of the economic consequences of Brexit and no analysis of the
risks from remaining in the EU from the Treasury’s two‘dodgy dossiers’


Professor David Blake
Cass Business School
City University London
d.blake@city.ac.uk
9 June 2016


These Treasury models are what some in the UK Business Community, the SNP and other Remainer's seem to be using to forge their case for staying in the EU, since, when asked they cannot ever produce any real (that is to say unbiased data) to back up their claims about the benefits of being in the EU Single Market. So when the Politicians, in Labour, the LibDem, SNP etc., peddle their propaganda about the benefits of being in the EU Single Market, they are peddling unfounded claims, based upon models designed to deceive the public, and influence the EU debate - claims about some fantasy land that does not exist, never has existed, and never will exist - another EU Myth - perpetuated by politicians who are loyal only to the EU.


For all the claims by the EU, and the political Left in the UK, about workers' rights, and the "wonderful" future for the youth inside the EU - it is just propaganda - another EU Myth, the youth of today are better off, by a factor of 2 being out of the EU and living in parts of the OECD world. The nonsense that the Labour Party, LibDems, Greens and Plaid Cymru spout about making sure the UK preserves workers rights after we leave the EU is just that - they would have been better off out of the EU over the past 23 years, if they wanted to find a job; let alone keep their workers' rights.


In fact, the report has much more information than presented here, for example: on Bank 'passporting' rights, other financial services, as well as the potential shenanigans around airline services within the EU after the UK leaves - there are also discussions about the best approaches to the Article 50  (TEU) negotiations and alternate outcomes.


For an additional discussion on the legal implications of the Single Market and the Customs Union by Martin Howe QC at (www.lawyersforbritain.org) - who has written an article entitled The EU Customs Union and the Single Market after Brexit to explain all of the facets of the options which have been considered.


So the government and the Remainer's in the various political parties (mostly on the political Left) have been using effectively fraudulent arguments about the economic benefits of the UK being in the EU Single Market, since their arguments have been exposed, through the use of actual data, as being gross exaggerations of the true position. However, the lackadaisical attitude of the UK politicians suggests that they have no real interest in whether it is more economically beneficial or not for the UK to be in the EU, and that the real agenda has nothing to do with trade - all along, that was used only to take control of the EU member states - which has been fairly successful to-date. 


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