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6th March 2019
Merkel's 3-Card Trick?
As we approach the end of the Article 50 "negotiation" period (23 days to go) it seems that the European Union's "Chairman Mao Tribute Act" - might have instructed Theresa May to try the 3-card trick with the UK Parliament, in an attempt to force a climb down by the ERG and others opposing the "Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration Treaty (WA&PD)".
Ever since Theresa May went on a walking holiday and then came back to announce a General Election in 2017 - It has been difficult to believe that she was ever meeting the EU to negotiate anything resembling a trade agreement - or even an acceptable withdrawal agreement in EU (Brussels, Berlin or elsewhere) and, rather, she was simply traveling just to take instruction from our masters in Germany and Belgium; as exemplified by her behaviour at Chequers in July 2018.
In this "pick-a-card' scenario though, the options are placed on the table, one at a time - so that the UK Parliament has to decide how to vote on the "Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration" first (12th March), then on the 13th they vote on the WTO option and on the 14th they vote on having a 2nd Referendum to overturn the People's vote on the 23rd June 2016.
Merkel would certainly bet on the latter "2nd Referendum" option - an extension to Article 50 ; with the "WA&PD" Treaty, the EU fallback bet (an each way bet)
She Merkel (and May) seem to believe that UK (Politicians - Commons and Lords) will be willing to be bullied into accepting terms of a deeply flawed and destructive (for the UK) new Treaty to replace the EU's Constitutional Lisbon Treaty (2007), even without the "Backstop" being resolved.
Further, if the UK population voted to leave the EU while under the Lisbon Treaty (2007) - they would hardly be placated under the proposed WA&PD Treaty and continues uncertainty for businesses indefinitely - Theresa May is quite simply duping the people who voted to leave - and the craven collusion between our politicians and the those in the EU makes everyone of them are no better than "Carpetbaggers" exploiting the 2016 Referendum result in order to further disenfranchise the the UK population.
The fact that WA&PD would make everything in the UK worse than it was before 2016; and would lead a to a massive increase in daily antagonism and resentment towards the EU, and its individual Member States; the Treaty can only have been put together; either, in order to foment civil disobedience in the UK - resulting in direct paramilitary EU intervention - or it is in place simply as part of the 2nd Referendum vote - as the only alternative to remaining in the EU.
The WTO (MFN) Rules option
The only one of these 3 outcomes that does not need an extension is the WTO option - though it will take time to organise "New Trade Deals" with the EU, but the UK could immediately open trade talks with the rest of the world without EU legal hindrance, and it would continue to trade with the EU under World Trade Organisation (WTO) - Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rules - this is not the "No Deal" scenario that the UK establishment would like the UK population to believe.
We can even do better than that, because on the day after we leave we will be in exactly the same position as the day before in terms of compliance to the rules of trading in goods and documentation related to operating within the Single Market under the EU Customs Union - our Parliament has transcribed or at least partly - all the EU regulations into UK legislation - every single 120,000 plus of them.
So as long as we follow the procedures that we already follow and abide by the same "Trading Only Rules" as a Third country - then there is no reason for the UK not to continue trading as before - for a temporary period; until we begin to diverge from those rules (as the EU adds new rules) in a managed way - we will not accept the Political integration - but we will co-operate with the EU in areas of common National interest as a sovereign country in its own right.
After all, the UK population were told that the UK was only entering into a trade only deal with the EEC (EU) in 1972 and that was reiterated in 1975.
This would inevitably create some disruption and antagonism from the EU; but only if the EU (Brussels and Berlin) are belligerent - with the French and Germany leading the charge and with the backing of the 25 other Member States but only if the EU takes its vengeance and seeks to "blockade" the UK; to "starve" the UK population into submission. No doubt using EU-Boats stalking our shipping lanes to prevent vital supplies from reaching the UK from the Commonwealth and the rest of the world..
Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration
Our politicians been trying hard to lull the population, and themselves into thinking that the only thing wrong with the Withdrawal Agreement is the "Backstop" (BS) - it is the most important inclusion in the Treaty - but the entire Treaty is riddled with traps for the UK and even if the BS was resolved the EU would still be able to keep us trapped in the EU and under ECJ control - it must not be ratified at any price. To add insult to injury we would also have to pay for the privilage of being abused - not just through subscriptions but also through tariff and VAT costs - that is what the EU really wants - but for the UK citizens that is just - "taxation without representation" - and no better reason to leave.
If WA is ratified then Merkel's "gloating" would be heard and celebrated throughout the EU and far afield.
But it isn't just Withdrawal Agreement alone that is the problem - the Political Declaration is equally dangerous in terms of keeping the UK under EU (ECJ) control.
The EU will not open the WA Treaty - but they might change or add wording to the PD or even separately, on behalf of Geoffrey Cox, which could used to keep the UK trapped - the ECJ is the arbiter and enforcer of all EU Treaties - and the ECJ "interpretation" of the wording of the EU Treaties is what will determine how completely the UK is trapped - not the wording itself.
To illustrate how powerful the Political Declarations are, refer to Declaration 17 of the Lisbon Treaty (2007) - below is the wording associated with Declaration 17-
Consolidated version of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union - DECLARATIONS annexed to the Final Act of the Intergovernmental Conference which adopted the Treaty of Lisbon, signed on 13 December 2007 - A. DECLARATIONS CONCERNING PROVISIONS OF THE TREATIES - 17. Declaration concerning primacy
Official Journal 115 , 09/05/2008 P. 0344 - 0344
17. Declaration concerning primacy
"Opinion of the Council Legal Service of 22 June 2007
The above method - the ECJ using its own Case Law - is also how the EU turned a "Reform Treaty" (Lisbon Treaty (2007)) into the EU's Constitution - it was called a "Reform Treaty" to avoid Referendums - except in Eire; whose own Constitution required a Referendum.
The rejected Constitution for Europe (2004) is alive and well and hiding inside the 6 EU Treaties - courtesy of the ECJ.
A Civil Servant "Whistleblower" has warned of the dangers of the Political Declaration part of the WA&PD, but it could equally apply to any form of words from the EU that its own ECJ can interpret for its own ends:
If WA&PD is Ratified
In the event that the "WA&PD" is ratified then we begin and extensive period of malaise; after the UK hands over £39 billion for no guarantee of ever being able to strike a trade deal with the EU; and as long as the EU wishes it can demand ever larger amounts from the pockets of UK taxpayers' to satiate its own profligacy - Taxation without Representation - while the UK desperately seeks to negotiate new trade deals with the EU, it will be constrained and unable to bring about anything substantial with the rest of the world. It is also worth remembering that only 6% of the total 5.4 million UK businesses trade with the EU - but all of the 5.4 million have to implement EU regulations see BBC "Reality Check" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36029211)
The UK would be negotiating with the EU as its captive "Vassal State" - while the EU has no incentive to act in good faith or offer anything of value to the UK until the UK simply accepts its fate and goes into terminal decline - the same fate under all of the other EU Treaties - culminating with the Constitutional Lisbon Treaty (2007) - but stretched out over a longer period - "a death by a million Directives and Regulations"
The 2nd Referendum Option (MP's vote for an extension to Article 50)
Potentially the 2nd Referendum option requires a long delay for preparation and legislation and, like the WTO option the vote takes place in the event of the WA&PD being voted down - but it could be enacted in its own right - however, then it would be rather odd to subsequently place WA&PD as part of the 2nd Referendum options after it was voted down by Parliament - unless the EU believed that it is much easier to dupe the people of the UK than their elected representatives - or they have already decided exactly how the vote can be rigged.
The peculiar "TIG" seems to be a "one horse" political party (2nd EU Referendum) but in fact, it is a Blair "ghost" from the past - a New "New Labour" Party designed to undermines Corbyn and stop him winning a General Election - ultimately the Labour Party could split down the Middle - divided between a Left and a Centre Party (pretend not Left)
For more about the options - a detailed analysis
For information about data exposing the EU Customs Union's poor performance since 1998
For much more please visit brexitcentral.comand foran analysis on the prospects for the UKif Article 50 is extendedseelawyers for britain
"Royal" Brexit Interference
Respect for the Royal Family derives from their ability to avoid entering into politics - and it is particularly important at this crucial time in the UK - EU relationship. So for Meghan Markle to discuss fears over "Chlorinated Chicken" in public at Charles' 70th birthday bash is totally inappropriate when discussions in the UK revolve around potential future trade relationships with the USA, and elsewhere around the world.
The fact that Theresa May was also at the party - evokes the "spectre" of Cameron asking Barack Obama to interfere in the 2016 Referendum after Obama stated that "the UK would be at the back of the queue when it comes to trade deals with the USA."
Markle's comments at this time are out-of-order and disrespect the UK population.
Whatever the arguments about "Chlorinated Chicken" or anything else - the British public are perfectly capable of deciding for themselves whether or not they would buy such products.
In any event - when the EU tries to beat the UK to USA trade deals - they will be required to follow suit - particularly sinc the EU's latest trick is to circumvent the Member States in order to get quick deals - as with the EU - Japan deal.
For more about how politicians use scare stories about such things as "Chlorinated Chicken" in order to get their own way - by manipulating high profile "vectors" to play a part in undermining the 2016 Referendum - and in this case trapping the UK population in the EU with the WA&PD Treaty - see "Blair's anti-Brexit Playbook" - (item 5)
Note how Blair's suggestions have been taken-up by various politicians and others since 2017, and how it exposes the blatant hypocrisy and downright malevolence of the UK establishment.